This is the best analysis I have found. The S&P firms make about $1T globally so this guy's $87.1B tax reduction for his 441 would be close to a 10% increase in net for the index; makes sense.
Very bullish cet par.
here’s the logic behind my estimated 10.5% boost to the market, from a corporate tax cut to 20%.
Among S&P 500 companies, 441 of them broke out U.S. taxes paid in their most recent annual reports, according to screens run for me by S&P Global Market Intelligence. I cut out the rest of them for my calculation here, since we don’t know what they paid in domestic taxes. My “S&P 441” paid $218.6 billion in U.S. taxes in 2015. I knock that down by 7% to account for state and local taxes, for an estimated federal tax paid of $203.3 billion.
This number includes current year tax paid plus deferred tax. A cut in the tax rate to 20% implies a tax savings of about $87.1 billion. That’s because 20% divided by 35% times $203.3 billion suggests a new tax bill of $116.2 billion, for the roughly $87.1 billion in savings. (That’s $203.3 billion minus $116.2 billion.)
Multiply that $87.1 billion by the forward P/E of 22 for my “S&P 441” (that P/E comes from S&P Global Market Intelligence) and we get $1.9 trillion. Added to a $18.3 trillion market cap for the 441 stocks that are my subgroup of the S&P 500, and that’s a gain of about 10.5%.
S&P 500 companies would save $87.1 billion if Trump passes his tax plan: https://t.co/CtJO9DTfPv #stockstotrade #stocks— Fincra (@fincra_) December 16, 2016